Running Quickly

Today’s Run

Time – 56:54
Distance – 6.3 miles
Pace – 8:57 min/mi
Elevation – 145 ft.

startup-photos-2

First run with a sub–9:00/mile pace at this distance. I’m feeling very good right now, which I’m happy about, because that means that I’ll have good fitness when Baby Girl gets here and I need to slow down. I can spend December and January in maintenance, and then late January-April in marathon prep. Cold run, but two layers on top and the running tights worked just fine. New Hokas!

Running Speed Distributions

While doing a little digging online I came across a thread in the “World Famous Message Boards at Let’s Run. In it, a discussions was had about race time distributions for 5K runners, runners in general, and some statistical analysis. While the commentary from some of the posters leaves much to be desired (too many high school cross country runners with reasonably quick times for their age makes for rudeness abounding), the information gives me a lot to think about.

Here’s the table (Taken from some data on athletic Japanese men and the Ache tribe):

Mean 5k time for men aged 18 to 33—19:00
Two thirds come in between————17:30 and 20:30
95% come in between——————16:30 and 22:30

% WR speed–Top X% or 1 in X men–200m–400m–800m–1 mi–2 mi–5 km–10 km

63%–74%–30.42–68.45–2:39–5:50- 12:29- 20:00–41:39

65%–63%–29.66–66.74–2:35–5:41–12:10–19:30–40:37

66%–50%–28.90–65.03–2:31–5:32–11:52–19:00–39:34

68%–37%–28.14–63.32–2:27–5:24–11:33–18:30–38:32

70%–25%–4–27.38–61.60–2:23–5:15–11:14–18:00–37:29

72%–14%–7–26.62–59.89–2:19–5:06–10:55–17:30–36:27

74%–7%–14–25.86–58.18–2:15–4:57–10:37–17:00–35:24

76%–3%–33–25.10–56.47–2:11–4:49–10:18–16:30–34:22

79%–1%–100–24.34–54.76–2:07–4:40–9:59–16:00–33:19

81%–453–23.58–53.05–2:03–4:31–9:40–15:30–32:17

84%–2600–22.82–51.34–1:59–4:22–9:22–15:00–31:14

87%–22,000–22.05–49.63–1:55–4:14–9:03–14:30–30:12

90%–300,000–21.29–47.91–1:51–4:05–8:44–14:00–29:09

93%–7 million–20.53–46.20–1:47–3:56–8:25–13:30–28:07–olympic finals

97%–342 million–19.77–44.49–1:43–3:47–8:07–13:00–27:04–gold medal

100%–19.19–43.18–1:41–3:41–7:53–12:37–26:18–world record

–Converted from 1500m and 3000m times

In considering my other goals, specifically the 5K goal of 18:00–20:00, it falls right at the beginning of this chart, which gets me thinking about what I’m doing next. Last night was a new 10K Strava best (55:52) and a new 5K Strava best (27:32). Those are nowhere near the low end of this list, but they are improvements that show me I can get better. The amount of increases I am seeing will slow, to be sure, but the amount of time I have to make improvements hasn’t closed yet.

So, now I’m considering a goal adjustment. Do I do the 100-mile qualifier in 2018, or do I work on speed and strength for 2018 and make 2019 the big distance year?

Certainly, The Wife would probably appreciate the extra available time that I would have from not spending 4–6 hours on Saturdays and Sundays out running 20–30 miles.

Every.

Single.

Weekend

Maybe this isn’t such a bad change to the plan.

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